Once upon a time in a land far away and long ago, the Democrat party had an exhilarating, messianic orator that was widely viewed as their salvation for at least the foreseeable future.
The O-man was appealing to everyone, promising benefits, special programs, widespread entitlements and more, to anyone who would listen.
And listen they did, following up with widespread adoration, and ultimately votes.
The O-man cobbled together a base of the disaffected, the optimistic neophytes, and the traditional Democrat base to create a resounding win, taking office with unusual levels of political goodwill.
Hard to believe that was less than eighteen months ago, a mere second in poltical life.
Now, almost all of his coalition groups have been rudely awakened, and are finding out that their "hope" was misplaced, and that things are always subject to "change.
It's widely known that the SEIU, the Service Employees International Union, along with other unions like the AFL-CIO, was instrumental in the O-man's election.
SEIU head Andy Stern has been the most prolific White House visitor in the O-man's first year in office.
But the unions are becoming impatient and irritated that things they promoted are being delayed, or even outright trampled by the law of unintended consequences.
Healthcare reform was one of their important priorities, for without it, unions would themselves be bankrupted by their own healthcare entitlements, as retiree headconut grew and membership declined.
But now they're finding out that the healthcare bill just enacted will most likely cost their retirees and current employees a great deal as it phases in.
In the first two days after the law was signed, three major companies — Deere & Co., Caterpillar Inc. and Valero Energy — said they expect to take a total hit of $265 million in increased costs due to tax implications of the new bill
In today's economy, that translates to either increased worker participation, or employee layoffs, as companies struggle to stay competitive and profitable.
With more than 3,500 companies now getting tax breaks as an incentive to keep providing coverage, others are almost certain to announce similar cost increases in the weeks ahead as they sort out the impact of the changes caused by the elimination of those tax breaks.
That will undoubtedly result in layoffs of workers, many of whom are union employees.
That will undoubtedly result in layoffs of workers, many of whom are union employees.
Figuring out what it will mean for retirees will take longer, but analysts said as many as 2 million could lose the prescription drug coverage provided by their former employers, leaving them to enroll in Medicare's program, with substantially reduced benefits.
"You're increasing the incentive for companies to say 'We don't want to be in the health care business any more, and move employees and retirees to Medicare, a program generally believed to already be in financial trouble'" said James Gelfand, senior manager of health policy for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
"American industrial companies that are struggling to compete globally against companies with much lower labor costs are particularly likely to reduce worker counts and eventually drop retiree coverage", said Gene Imhoff, an accounting professor at the University of Michigan.
"As many as 1.5 million to 2 million retirees could lose the drug benefits provided by their former employer because of the tax changes", according to a study by the Moran Company, a health care consulting firm.
James Klein, president of the American Benefits Council, said between 6 million and 7 million retirees currently get the benefits, and nearly all will be impacted to some degree.
Generally, "retirees would prefer to stay with prescription drug coverage provided by their companies as opposed to enrolling in a Medicare Part D plan", said Marilyn Moon, a health care economist with the nonpartisan American Institutes for Research.
She said "most of the company-sponsored plans are more generous and almost none have the coverage gap that comes with Part D plans."
"That's particularly painful and problematic for people who have substantial expenses at any one point in time," she said.
Deere and Caterpillar were among a group of 10 companies that sent a letter to congressional leaders in December warning of the cost increases and their impacts.
The others were Boeing Co., Con-Way Inc., Exelon Corp., Navistar Inc., Verizon, Xerox Corp., Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. and MetLife Inc., all of whom expect to have to recover the increased costs from their operations by reducing other employee costs, i.e. headcount.
The companies that signed the December letter warned that changing the way retiree drug benefits are subsidized would have a broad impact on the economy, and there are already indications that the effects will trickle down to individuals --- individuals who in these cases, will have union benefits affected as well --- as they move from employment to unemployed union worker.
But it's not just the unions who are becoming disillusioned.
Liberal Dems are fighting mad because the O-man, Whiney Harry, and Princess Nancy allowed the bill to pass without a single-payer public option, something the O-man campaigned on.
Pro-life Dems (yes, there are a few), are angry because the vaunted executive order against funding abortion is an obvious sham that in no way modifies the law now going into effect, which has publicly funded abortion provisions.
A number of powerful American Jewish congreations are upset over escalating tensions between the U.S. and Israel—and may take it out on the Democrats this fall.
Wealthy Jewish supporters of Israel, especially on both coasts, are bitterly opposed to President Obama’s Middle East policies and are harshly critical of the officials who are carrying them out.
James S. Tisch, chief executive of Loews Corp.—the hotel, insurance and oil exploration conglomerate --- a big-money political donor and longtime activist in Jewish causes and philanthropies --- voices the suspicions of many:
“I think the president comes to this from Jeremiah Wright’s church, and there’s no doubt in my mind that in Jeremiah Wright’s church, the Palestinians were portrayed as freedom fighters and not as terrorists.
The President has continuously minimzed support for Israel while at the same time extending concilliatory policies to Muslim nations.”
The President has continuously minimzed support for Israel while at the same time extending concilliatory policies to Muslim nations.”
And, the vocal anti-war component of the O-man's coalition has been bitch slapped by his not only endorsing Bush's militray strategies, but expanding them through the surge and the missions into Afghanistan.
It seems no matter where the O-man turns, he faces deeply upset former supporters, each with their own, often irreconcilable, beefs.
Democrat operatives are scurrying to spin the anger over healthcare and other policy issues as being "unsustainable" until November -- after all, it's a good eight months away.
But the truth is that the anger will likely only build, and become more widely dispersed, leaving the Dems with a fractured base unhappy about everything, and looking to get even at the polls --- much as some conservatives acted when they supported the O-man's "change" over McCain.
If the O-man continues trying to implement his radical agenda, only to run headlong into the realities of the two party process, keeping the anger alive until November shouldn't be an issue.
"Every betrayal contains a perfect moment, a coin stamped heads or tails with salvation on the other side." ---- Barbara Kingsolver
“Betrayal, ... betrayal is the willful slaughter of hope.” ---- Steven Deitz
